with Production, Consumption,  Population and CO2 Projections updated through mid-2009

My most current World analysis of energy consumption trends, forecasts and implications. All charts have been updated with energy production/consumption data through yearend 2008 to mid-2009, forecasts from the 2009 EIA International Energy Outlook and other organizations are included, as well as projections of regional population growth, growth in per capita energy consumption/CO2 emissions and implications going forward. This was presented in Ottawa to an investment group in September and to the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) in Albany during the same trip. A consensus emerged at the recent ASPO-USA meeting in Denver that peak oil arrived in 2008, and my recent communications with Colin Campbell, who brought the peak oil issue to widespread attention in the 1990’s, revealed that he is quite certain 2008 marked the all time high of world oil production. Notwithstanding this, the EIA and IEA, who are the  principal government agency forecasters, as well as heads of multinationals and OPEC, believe that global oil production can grow to more than 100 million barrels per day with sufficient investment, and that consumption of other fossil fuels can be expanded for the foreseeable future.
 
The refusal of governments to acknowledge the risks of peak oil in their planning brings to mind one of the requirements to avoid potentially catastrophic ramifications to critical resource shortages pointed out by Diamond in his famous book Collapse : "one of the choices has depended on the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they reach crisis proportions." It would appear that for now at least, mainstream world leaders will continue to pursue the growth paradigm until the bitter end, which unfortunately is doomed to failure on a finite planet, and wastes precious time and resources for an orderly transition to a lower impact, steady state paradigm which, given the finite nature of fossil fuels, we will get to whether we like it or not.

The Energy Sustainability Dilemma: Powering the Future in a Finite World 

David Hughes is a geoscientist who has studied the energy resources of Canada for nearly four decades, including  32 years with the Geological Survey of Canada as a scientist and research manager. He developed the National Coal Inventory to determine the availability and environmental constraints associated with Canada’s coal resources. As Team Leader for Unconventional Gas on the Canadian Gas Potential Committee, he coordinated the recent publication of a comprehensive assessment of Canada’s unconventional natural gas potential. Over the past decade, he has researched, published and lectured widely on global energy and sustainability issues in North America and internationally. He is a board member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas – Canada and is a Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute. He recently contributed to “Carbon Shift”, an anthology edited by Thomas Homer-Dixon on the twin issues of peak energy and climate change, and his work has been featured in Canadian Business, Walrus and other magazines, as well as through the popular press, radio, television and the internet. He is currently president of a consultancy dedicated to research on energy and sustainability issues. 

Here’s an updated talk on North American natural gas including an in depth consideration of shale gas and its potential. Certain groups, in particular the American Clean Skies Foundation http://www.cleanskies.org and the newly formed American Natural Gas Alliance http://www.anga.us would have us believe that natural gas is so abundant it can replace US oil imports and we should be looking at replacing the vehicle fleet with natural gas.

The hype surrounding this is premature in my opinion, as 90% of shale gas production comes from the Barnett shale in east Texas (80%) and the long declining Antrim shale in Michigan (10%). The hype would have us believe that all other shale plays, which so far are producing little, will ultimately match the performance of the Barnett. The attached presentation critically examines this and some of the statements that have been made pro and con.

I was asked to present this by the Capital Region Energy Forum in Albany New York in part as a counter to a talk presented before me by an attorney at the same meeting from the American Clean Skies Foundation (I have also provided expert testimony in Colorado recently countering some of the statements made by this organization). There is a lot of misinformation on gas out there (Canada’s gas production is now falling at nearly 6% per year and NEB is forecasting it will be down 17% by 2011, yet Enbridge is talking of building a pipeline to the west coast to export Canadian gas!).

Natural Gas in North America: A Panacea to Replace Imported Oil?

David Hughes is a geoscientist who has studied the energy resources of Canada for nearly four decades, including  32 years with the Geological Survey of Canada as a scientist and research manager. He developed the National Coal Inventory to determine the availability and environmental constraints associated with Canada’s coal resources. As Team Leader for Unconventional Gas on the Canadian Gas Potential Committee, he coordinated the recent publication of a comprehensive assessment of Canada’s unconventional natural gas potential. Over the past decade, he has researched, published and lectured widely on global energy and sustainability issues in North America and internationally. He is a board member of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas – Canada and is a Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute. He recently contributed to “Carbon Shift”, an anthology edited by Thomas Homer-Dixon on the twin issues of peak energy and climate change, and his work has been featured in Canadian Business, Walrus and other magazines, as well as through the popular press, radio, television and the internet. He is currently president of a consultancy dedicated to research on energy and sustainability issues.

I thought I'd point out a new book that we've added to our recommended reading section. Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller by Jeff Rubin.

Jeff Rubin was the Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets for almost twenty years. He was one of the first economists to accurately predict soaring oil prices back in 2000 and is now one of the world’s most sought after energy experts. He lives in Toronto.

I can see that the book is getting good reviews and recommend that you pick one up.

The Financial Times of London has a review on their website.

Dave Hughes’s guide to the end of the fossil fuel age

The Walrus has a great piece about ASPO Canada's very own J. David Hughes in their June issue. Written by Chris Turner, the article can also be found here at The Walrus website.

David continues to travel the country presenting "The Talk." If you get the chance, don't miss the opportunity to see why Dave has become such a sought after presenter and remember to pick up June's issue of The Walrus.

ASPO Canada board member Thomas Homer-Dixon, author of The Ingenuity Gap and The Upside of Down, argues that the two problems are really one: a carbon problem. We depend on carbon energy to fuel our complex economies and societies, and at the same time this very carbon is fatally contaminating our atmosphere. To solve one of these problems will require solving the other at the same time. In other words, we still have a chance to tackle two monumental challenges with one innovative solution: clean, low-carbon energy.

Carbon Shift brings together six of Canada’s world-class experts to explore the question of where we stand now, and where we might be headed. It explores the economics, the geology, the politics, and the science of the predicament we find ourselves in. And it gives each expert the chance to address what they think are the most important facets of the complex problem before us.

There are no experts in Canada better positioned to explain the world that awaits us just beyond the horizon, and no better guide to that future than this collection of their thoughts. Densely packed with information, but accessibly written and powerfully timely, Carbon Shift will be an indispensable handbook to the difficult choices that lie ahead.

David Hughes is a former senior geoscientist with the Geological Survey of Canada and ASPO Canada advisory board member

David Keith is Canada Research Chair in Energy and the Environment, University of Calgary

Jeff Rubin is Chief Economist, Chief Strategist and Managing Director, CIBC World Markets

Mark Jaccard is professor of environmental economics in the School of Resource and Environmental Management at Simon Fraser University and a member of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

William Marsden is an investigative reporter and author of Stupid to the Last Drop: How Alberta Is Bringing Environmental Armageddon to Canada (And Doesn’t Seem to Care)

Jeffrey Simpson is a Globe and Mail national columnist and author, with Mark Jaccard, of Hot Air: Meeting Canada’s Climate Change Challenge

With a foreword by Ronald Wright, author of A Short History of Progress and What is America?

ASPO Canada advisory board member Andrew Nikiforuk reviews the book for the Globe and Mail